Last night I had dinner with someone who is considering whether or not to run for Congress in the 6th. We talked about the current announced field, a couple probable announcements from others, coming soon, what it would take to actually win both the primary and the general, and how this election will be very different from elections in the past.

It’s that last point that should be of interest to all of you in ICC. Since the announcement of Chrissy Houlihan and Bob Dettore, I’ve heard a lot of comments such as “I like him/her”, “I’m glad someone is taking on Ryan”, “We need someone else in Congress,” What I’ve rarely heard is “I’ve cut a $2,700 check to get this off the ground” or “I’m planning on bundling” nor “I’ve signed up to start canvassing for the candidate now” or “I’m committed to doing everything possible to getting X elected.” And the upshot of our conversation is that without that early level of commitment, the chances of someone winning against Ryan are objectively very low.

In election cycles of old, when someone ran for Congress, he/she came out of lower office or some sort of background where he/she had existing infrastructure and understood the election process. Thus, there was an understanding of who needed to be in place to kick off a campaign, and  clear month-by-month, and week-by-week, plans related to outreach, money-raising, numerical goals to be reached, and tracking system. The candidate would have both paid staff and a kitchen cabinet to guide and do the volunteer lift and provide guidance. There would have been initial calls to the party, and active outreach to attain infrastructure support. The candidate would also either be in a position to self-fund, and/or would be in a position to secure endorsements (and associated funding and tangible support) from organizations. All of this PRIOR to any announcement.

But this year is different. We spent a lot of time last night discussing what the party could and would do. And the conclusion was, not much. This cycle, whether or not we can win CD6 is about 95% dependent on what we, Indivisible Chester County, and other related groups are able to do in terms of coalescing behind a candidate, individually giving money, and individually working phone banks and canvasses. The one exception to that, per the man with whom I had dinner, was if a ringer came out swinging during petition season. That person would have unassailable credentials, an organization in place, the ability to raise millions very quickly, a great oppo research team, and the kind of personality that was mesmerizing.

But it’s really all on us. What are YOU willing to do? Are you willing to work THIS YEAR for row officers to help us build the bench moving forward? Are you willing to commit to State House and State Senate candidates next year to be in place for redistricting? Are you willing to help lay the groundwork to insure that an outsider running against an entrenched machine will stand a chance? Saying “Well, I’ll vote next year” is nowhere near enough.

Another big issue for us is whether we are committed to a “progressive” candidate or a “left of center” candidate, and what the ramifications of that decision are for an R+4 to R+6 district. (It’s a little fluid as how that will be next year.) The two types of candidates need to be positioned differently, and need to run very different campaigns. The former needs a coalition of millenials (and younger) voters and volunteers, outreach at unlikely venues, and slightly moderated platforms. The latter needs to be very careful about messaging and an ability to reach moderate Republicans (who yes, actually are hiding amoungst us here in the 6th).

His question to me, which I will bring to the other chairs, because we do not act unilaterally, is what can we do to engage people, harness energy, and what we can do without stepping over any legal lines? It’s an involved question, and a set of very difficult answers.

The saddest thing we discussed is that we will know after this year’s two elections whether we have any chance at all next year. If turnout in May sucks like it often does, it bodes poorly. If we cannot capture row offices in November, we cannot win CD6 next year.

So I leave it to you, the membership. Write comments, talk about what you’re willing to do. What are you looking for in a candidate? What kind of information do you need to make such a decision? What will you do this year? If you are ready to commit to a candidate, why that person? What do you see as his/her path to victory?

For every election since 2008, I’ve interviewed all Democratic candidates (with identical questions to the field, which differ from year to year) running for Congress in the 6th and have published those interviews at Democratic Convention Watch, the blog of which I’m a co-owner. Those interviews are completely unbiased, and geared to helping people make decisions based on issue positions and biography. I plan to do the same this year: once this spring, and again next winter for any updates prior to the primary. So if you’re holding off on a choice, you’ll have another data set. But that’s independent of what you, the membership, are willing to do this year to lay the groundwork. I hope you’ll be free and open with your comments.